Why stopping the war in Yemen is not the simple solution

Why stopping the war in Yemen is not the simple solution

Religious tensions in Yemen have been simmering since the 1990s, with the Yemeni Constitution making no provisions for freedom of religion: a problem in a country with 56 percent Sunni Muslims and 42 percent a branch of Shia Muslims called Zaidis. A Zaidi rebel group called the Houthis (officially Ansar Allah) arose from the feelings of oppression and targeting the Zaidis felt from the Sunni majority government, and an off-and-on war broke out in 2004. The war has since escalated, with the Houthis taking control of the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, in 2015, forcing President Hadi, to flee the country.

Yemen is now divided into roughly three parts: the west, controlled by the Houthi rebels, the south and east, controlled by the government still loyal to President Hadi, and the centre, controlled by various militant groups including Ansar al-Sharia, al-Qaeda and ISIS.

Much like the Korean War was a proxy war between the capitalist USA and the communist USSR, so the Yemeni Civil War is secondarily a proxy war between the mostly-Shia Iran and the 100 percent Sunni Saudi Arabia. Diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have been hostile since the current Islamic Republic of Iran came into existence, with religious differences exacerbated by extremist approaches on both sides, but as relations deteriorate, both sides are attempting to assert their dominance in the Yemeni arena. Iran, being mostly Shia, supports the Zaidi rebels, while Saudi Arabia, being Sunni, supports the Hadi-led government. Al-Qaeda and ISIS have also entered the conflict, seeing an opportunity to assert control over the country.

With terrorist groups involved, Yemen is now a front-line nation in the war on terror: enter the United States. In apparent efforts to target terrorism, the US has been responsible for drone strikes against Al-Qaeda targets for several years, with many of these causing heavy civilian casualties. The US has also signed weapons contracts with the Saudis and former Yemeni governments to arm them against the Houthi tribes; while Saudi Arabia tries to prevent a Shiite majority nation emerging on its doorstep—all its neighbours are predominately Sunni—the United States has entered on Saudi Arabia’s side, providing arms, intelligence and logistical support under the guise of combating terrorism. Why? As Senator John McCain put it: ‘the prospect of groups like Iranian-backed Houthi militants is more than [US Arab allies] could withstand.’ Saudi Arabia is a counterweight to Iran, whose interests the US seeks to limit within the Middle East. Not only would an Iran-backed Shiite Yemen be able to influence the Shias living in Saudi Arabia, but if any further conflict were to begin, Iran could effectively throttle Saudi and the US. Yemen sits on the gulf of Aden and the Red Sea—Iran could close that strait and stop shipping traffic. No shipping access means no Saudi oil.

While 13 December 2018 saw the US Senate vote to end US military assistance to Saudi Arabia over alleged war crimes in Yemen, the United Kingdom continues to support the Saudis, with Prime Minister Theresa May claiming ‘close ties with the Saudis keep people on the streets of Britain safe.’ Boris Johnson, then foreign minister, rejected a proposal for the UN Human Rights Council to conduct an inquiry into the war in Yemen, most probably because such a report would find the UK complicit in the humanitarian crisis there, with the government having entered the war without parliamentary approval.

With all this in the background to the conflict, it’s almost unsurprising there hasn’t been as much coverage as expected. Unfortunately for the civilians caught up in the humanitarian disaster, there is no clear ‘good party’—no hero or underdog or good guy for the public to root for. You can cheer for the Saudi proxy, the Iranian proxy, or the terrorist group—none of which grab the public vote. Concurrently, the images of the starving and suffering civilians find themselves lost in the sea of heart-wrenching images coming from the Syrian conflict, the natural disasters and the refugee crises in Europe. Five million Syrians have fled their home country, flooding into Europe, compared to around 100,000 Yemenis escaping to Oman and North Africa—on numbers alone, the Syrian conflict is far more staggering, and the stories of refugees arriving in Europe are more compelling. The Syrian war has seen 400,000 casualties compared to the 16,000 in Yemen, and then the ISIS element is more profound in Syria. ISIS and Al-Qaeda may well also be involved in Yemen, but not nearly to the same degree or exposure. The Syrian conflict is driving the news cycle, leaving little room for discussion on the Yemeni situation.

But the Yemeni situation must be covered. The war has received widespread criticism and has led to the humanitarian catastrophe there: the de facto blockade left 78 percent of the Yemeni population in urgent need of food, water and medical aid; more than 2.5 million people have been internally displaced by fighting; famine threatens 13 million people; cholera has affected 1.2 million people; UNICEF described Yemen as ‘a living hell for children’, saying every 10 minutes, a child dies from a preventable disease because of the war; 3.4 million children are being deprived an education; and more than 85,000 children under the age of 5 have died from starvation.

The United Nations says the situation in Yemen is the world’s worst man-made humanitarian disaster. Civilians have repeatedly been the victims of ‘unrelenting violations of international humanitarian law’ according to the UN Human Rights Council.

In 2016, American security expert Bruce Riedel noted, ‘If the United States and the United Kingdom told King Salman [of Saudi Arabia] “this war has to end”, it would end tomorrow. The Royal Saudi Air Force cannot operate without American and British support.’

But the Saudis provide a commodity that the rest of the world relies on. Disrupting that—even a little bit—isn’t worth the economic trouble it would cause. The more cooperative and relevant a country is to our economic or political gain, the more likely we are to turn a blind eye to human rights violations and breaches of international law. Even then, the Yemeni government—which, although ousted by Houthi rebels, maintains a President—requested assistance from Saudi Arabia: the conflict in Yemen is not an illegal war by international standards. International politics is not based on morals, but strategic alliances.

The conflict in Yemen is a mess of corruption and religious tensions but the parties directly involved are not the only belligerents—those standing by as the Saudi coalition uses famine and disease as weapons of terror must also be criticised. David Miliband, CEO of the International Rescue Committee, says the simple solution to the crisis is to ‘stop the war and give humanity a chance to make a difference.’ But ending the war is not so simple and there’s no clear answer to which victor would make the world a better, more peaceful place.