The truth about climate change

In 2016, the United Nations requested a special report on the impact of global warming should temperatures rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. At the time, the UN’s hope was that the global response to climate change and its symptoms would be boosted once countries and organisations were equipped with specific data and information. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gathered the brightest minds in the world to analyse the impact and associated risks of global warming.

The result? We have until 2030 to prevent an irrevocable worsening of global warming and its impact on the planet.

The fact that global warming is threatening life on Earth is not news. Between worsening air quality and sea conditions poisoning marine life, rising temperatures have already altered many ecosystems around the world. It’s estimated that human activity has already caused a 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature since the pre-industrial reference period (between 1850 and 1900), and if the rate of climate change remains the same, we can expect another 0.5 degrees of warming between 2030 and 2052.

Why is 2030 the deadline date?

To avoid global warming above 1.5 degrees, humanity needs to cut its carbon dioxide emissions to about half of today’s levels by 2030—missing this deadline would make it near impossible to keep global warming below that 1.5 degree mark. We’ve already seen increases in extreme weather events, food shortages and extinction from 1 degree—any higher and rising sea levels, more frequent weather anomalies and damaging effects on food and water supplies will result in climate refugees, more species loss and the death of virtually all corals.

What’s worse is we are not on track to keep global warming below even 2 degrees. If countries hit their existing targets, temperatures will rise by around 3 degrees Celsius, and even more than that if emissions continue to increase.

From analysing the IPCC report, there are two important things to note.

First, even if we could wave a magic wand and stop all polluting, ecological destruction and other human activity impacting the environment right now, the warming that human activities have already initiated and its effects would continue potentially for centuries to come.

Second, we don’t have a magic wand and suddenly stopping all deforestation, mining, water waste, transportation, energy production, etc. is just not going to happen.

Our only option is to recognise we need to focus our attentions on slowing and managing the climate’s rate of change. If we can employ mitigation strategies before 2030 hits, we have a chance of preventing irreversible damage.

We are at the climate tipping point.

The planet itself will survive man-made climate change and even humans are not expected to go extinct—not immediately.

According to the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, increases in carbon emissions per head is closely followed by growth in human population with nearly a 4-fold increase in the last 100 years. But eventually, we’ll get to the point where changes to the atmosphere’s composition renders the Earth uninhabitable for humans. Carbon dioxide is toxic at high concentrations, causing death by respiratory acidosis and lifelong exposure to even the current moderately elevated concentrations could cause chronic physical and mental health conditions. The upper limit, above which human survival and reproduction would be impossible, is still unknown—but it exists.

This is not an excuse to remain apathetic. Global warming beyond 1.5 degrees would be catastrophic. Climate change affects lives around the world, but it’s the poorest and most vulnerable people who are bearing the brunt of the effects.

The only way to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees is the use of large-scale carbon removal, either from engineered technologies like direct air capture or biomass energy with carbon capture and sequestration, or from natural climate solutions such as afforestation. Even then, scientists fear relying on new and unproven technologies could represent ‘an irresponsible and inappropriate gamble, when the consequences of being wrong are potentially catastrophic.’ Large-scale carbon removal is realistically unfeasible, but reducing global emissions could be possible.

But we need to act now.

Global emissions are currently over 40 billion tons per year and have increased over the last two years. The International Energy Agency announced that oil consumption will continue to grow over the next five years, driven by increased demand for jet fuel and petrochemicals. It’s clear that unprecedented action is needed.

To add insult to injury, oil companies like Exxon and Shell have known about the planetary consequences of the carbon dioxide emissions since the 1980s. In 1982, Exxon predicted that by 2060, CO2 levels would reach around 560 parts per million and global temperatures would rise by around 2 degrees—look what’s happening now.

Shell’s assessments foresaw a one-meter sea level rise and the disappearance of specific ecosystems or habitat destruction—devastating regions of the world.

These companies did not dispute the links between their products and the environmental calamity we are facing. Rather, they knew and they kept quiet. Shell’s report was marked ‘confidential’ and Exxon’s study was leaked in 2015. The people who had the better idea than most of the details of global warming were the people most actively contributing to it. They chose to accept those risks on our behalf at our expense and to their monetary benefit.

Not only that, they spent decades refusing to publicly acknowledge climate change and even promoting climate misinformation, lobbying to protect their commercial interests to the detriment of the planet. One shocking quote from Exxon’s cover up? ‘Victory will be achieved when the average person is uncertain about climate science.’

A campaign by the world’s largest fossil fuel companies to deceive the public and distort the realities and risks of climate change have led to the tipping point upon which we now stand.

We’re in dire straits but it’s not over yet.

No single policy will end climate change, but a very effective strategy would be to quickly phase out fossil fuels. This means eliminating their use in favour of renewables. It is unrealistic to expect this from citizens and consumers alone, which means we need an end to political stalling and an appropriate response from our elected leaders. We need global frameworks and standardised data reporting platforms, science-based targets and evidence-based climate action. We need buy-in from industries, farming, agriculture, world leaders, educators and consumers alike—we need a complete global mind shift.

Individual actions will only go so far, but that doesn’t mean we can simply sit back. Take action and let your efforts inspire others. Use your voice to raise awareness and vote for environmentally-responsible policies and politicians. Vote with your wallet and support local enterprises. Reduce your meat intake and resist the lure of fast fashion. The power of people can be pretty amazing.

Climate change is real. Global warming is real. The threat is real.